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Market Outlook for MON 18-Feb-2008

Market Trends and Outlook

STOP PRESS: What happened in U.S. on FRI 15-Feb...

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What happened on FRI 15-Feb...

Taking cues from the weak US markets on THU, the Indian markets opened on a negative note today (FRI), what with the Sensex gapping-down 1.27% at open (Nifty was flat), before notching up quick overnight losses of 1.81%-1.86% (Sensex/ Nifty) in early-morning trades: in fact, this turned out to be day lows! Buying interest emerged within minutes of opening, and the indices rose steadily throughout the day, hitting day highs (o/n gains of 2.12%-2.17%) in the last 30mins of trade, before finally closing the day with 89%-93% of the day's gains intact. Although the day highs registered a gain of 2.12%-2.17% vis-a-vis the pvs close, they had gained 4%-4.11% from the lowest point of the day! At E-o-D, the Sensex and Nifty were seen at 18115.25 and 5302.90, gaining 348.62 points (+1.96%) and 100.90 points (+1.94%), respectively. For the w.e. FRI 15-Feb-08, the Sensex and Nifty gained 3.72% and 3.57% (respectively), retaining 96% and 93% of the intraweek gains (respectively), but more remarkably recovering a whopping 10.07% and 10.39% from the intraweek lows (respectively)!!

NSE cash volumes on FRI (an up-day) rose nearly 11% to 609mn shares (THU: 550mn), while the NSE cash traded value rose nearly 5% to Rs.14207Cr (THU: Rs.13546Cr), suggesting that where the overall volumes rose nearly 11% on this up-day, the underlying trading interest (to the extent of over 5%) may have swung away from large-cap stocks. This seems to suggest that today's market action may have been focussed in mid-caps and non-Index (& Index) large-caps -- in that order? The collective volumes of Sensex-component and Nifty-component stocks are AROUND their 10-day moving averages, registering overnight gains of 18% and 4% (respectively) on this up-day.

Of the total NSE cash volumes of 609mn shares, the up-volumes were approx. 570mn shares, while the down-volumes were approx. 32mn shares (7mn shares were unchanged), giving a POSITIVE advance-decline ratio (volume-basis) of nearly 18:1!! The February NSE cash volume average for 11 trading days at 570mn shares is nearly 31% below the December average of 824mn shares for the same period of 11 days, and over 21% below the overall December monthly average of 725mn shares.

On THU 14-Feb (a big up-day), MFs made net - of Rs.-Cr, and FIIs made net sales of Rs.1183Cr. In the DERIVATIVES market, FIIs made net purchases of Rs.2167Cr in the Futures segment (incl. purchases of Rs.1692Cr in index futures), and net purchases of Rs.803Cr in the Options segment. FIIs have single-handedly brought US$11.04bn in CY2005, US$8.22bn in CY2006 and US$17.58bn (!!) in CY2007 to the Indian equity markets, with (-)US$4.01bn, (+)US$1.14bn and (-)US$1.06bn (-)exiting/(+)entering in Jan-08, Dec-07 and Nov-07 (respectively). For 14 calendar days in Feb-08, the FII net investment figure stands at a positive US$449mn, i.e. a cash inflow of Rs.1,931Cr.

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Cash Market Trends

Advances / Declines - NSE

Deliveries - NSE (1011 stocks)

Institutional Trends

FIIs - Cash Market

FIIs - Derivatives Market

GRAND TOTAL Feb-08 >>

What to expect from MON 18-Feb-08 and beyond...

>>> published through software only...

Trading opportunities in the near- to short-term...
(P.S. Order of listing is for convenience only and does not indicate preference)

>>> published (when available) through software only...

MFs - Cash Market

Index of Reports

Buzzing Stocks (5-d / 22-d)
NSE Top 250, Index-200,
Index-500, Mid-Caps & Small-Caps

Cash-Market Sectoral Trends
Top 3 Sectors/ Top 5 Stocks on a.....
Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly Scale

Index Component Trends
BSE Sensex, S&P CNX Nifty,
CNX Nifty Junior, CNX MidCap-100

Mutual Funds
NAV by MF Scheme, Plan or Type,
Gainers & Losers, NAV Trends (+/-),
AUM: Fund-Wise, Scheme-Wise

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